TWL Semi-Final Previews

To make a fair analysis, I reviewed all the head-to-head matches these teams had in the most recent leagues (TWL, CAL, CEVO). Additionally, I reviewed the recent league matches these teams had on the maps which will be played in each playoff series.



Rising Storm (9-0) vs Dropouts (6-2-1)

Rising Storm rolled over That's Dope last week only giving up 1 round total in the match, an impressive victory to say the least. Dropouts barely edged out Unreasonable Ownage by virtue of 1 extra round won in an exciting match which was casted on E-Rev.TV. This semi-final match should be a better test for Rising Storm, they can't take a win for granted here. Some members of rS like to trash talk and have often mocked the caliber of the Dropouts team. Perhaps this will give Dropouts extra motivation to play their best and make this match close. The only head-to-head match they had during the TWL season was a lop-sided 10-2 victory by rS on Bridge SE. Rising Storm could have picked a long-range map for this playoff series, since they have shown they are much stronger than Dropouts long-range, but they have the confidence to beat them on CQB maps as well. The proof is in the pudding as the recent CQB results between these teams were 8-1 rs > drp on tunnel (CEVO) and 11-3 rS > drp on sandstorm (CAL).

Set 1: Pipeline

Rising Storm chose the classic map of Pipeline as their map choice. Apparently this was their choice last week as well when they beat tD 10-0 (not sure if it was played out). They also beat New Era Gaming on this map 7-0 earlier in the season, and they took out Mediocrity in the CEVO tourney when they beat them 8-2 on Pipeline. This is also a strong map for Dropouts, but that didn't show against Unreasonable Ownage as Dropouts were unable to take a single round on assault and lost the set 6-4 in that quarter-final match. They faired much better against a weaker opponent of That's Dope when they beat them 11-1 on pipeline in week 1 of the TWL season. Dropouts will need to improve the assault they showed against uO, and not make any mistakes on defense if they are to win this match.
Prediction: rS > drp 7-3.

Set 2: Urban Assault

Dropouts chose the most popular map that has been introduced to competition since version 2.3, one of the favorites to pub or scrim, Urban Assault. This is a solid map for Dropouts, and although they may not be the better team on this map, they will have a better chance of taking the set than they would on most other maps, making it the logical choice. Dropouts recent results on Urban were a 9-1 win vs That's Dope, and a 10-4 win vs Conviction in CAL. Rising Storm's recent results on Urban were a 7-4 win vs Animus in CAL, and an 8-4 win vs Version 3 in the CEVO tourney. Perhaps these results gave Dropouts reason to believe Rising Storm doesn't dominate this map like they do on others, or maybe they just chose it because they felt like it. As long as rS has their top players in this match, they should still be able to beat Dropouts here. It should be very close with some 1v1's and some clutch situations.
Prediction: rS > drp 5-3-2 giving them the match.

Set 3: Border

Although I don't foresee this match going to a 3rd set, if Dropouts manages to at least tie one of the first two sets I believe the 3rd set must be played. As border has rarely been used in competition, the only 2 results these teams had on this map were drp = tD 6-6, and rS > U 8-4 early in the TWL season. With not much to go on aside from the fact that rS is better mid to long range. I would say rS has the upper hand here.
Prediction: rS > drp 4-1 (if necessary).

overRated (9-0) vs IceNine (7-2)

This will mark only the 2nd time these teams battle each other in recent competition. The other time being when oR beat i9 8-4 on Sandstorm not too long ago in the TWL season. overRated has always performed well in TWL, they won their first title in 2006 when they took the Inter Championship. In more recent history they were champions in the last 2 Invite 4v4 seasons which both took place in 2007. They aren't really defending that title here since there isn't an Invite league, but they are still going to try and take the top league title yet again this season. IceNine has played out many seasons in the top TWL league, but have always failed come playoff time. Their result last week may show a sign that they've finally made it over the hump, but it will take a couple of amazing performances to win this match and then again in the finals.

Set 1: Tunnel

overRated has always performed at their best on tunnel, and are likely the toughest clan to beat on this map. The last, and perhaps only, time they lost on tunnel was early in 2007 when they lost to Team .ki^. More recently their results on tunnel were an 8-4 win over Med in TWL, and a 10-2 win over v3 in CEVO. IceNine has only had 1 recent tunnel match, where they beat Animus 9-5 in CAL this season. IceNine will more than likely give oR a run for their money in this 1st set.
Prediction: oR > i9 6-4.

Set 2: Urban Assault

IceNine has beat some of the top clans in AA on Urban, so it's no surprise that this was their map choice for this semi-final match. Their recent UA results in league matches were a 10-2 win against FightClub and a 7-6 win vs Mediocrity in CAL. overRated has always had a very tough time on Urban in the past. overRated has not had the opportunity to compete on this map in recent league matches. This may play against them unless they get in some good scrim time and pull themselves together on what is one of their weakest maps. If oR can find any holes in i9's strats, they can use this to their advantage and possibly take this set. If IceNine plays confident and stick to their strengths on this map, I believe they have a very slight advantage.
Prediction: i9 > oR 5-4-1.

Set 3: Border

There's a decent chance this match can go to a 3rd set. Unfortunately that would mean the winner would be decided on Border. This plays into i9's favor more than it does oR, since oR has tons of experience and success on all the usual top competitive maps. They probably aren't too pleased with the admins decision to choose an outdoor map which is very new to competition. It must be especially annoying to see the match could be decided on a map with random objective locations, seeing that oR normally only has a couple of strats on each map (not that they have any on border). This will make the outcome likely more even in my opinion. Regardless, the results from past border matches (only 1 each) show that overRated had more success. IceNine lost to mediocrity 8-4, whereas overRated beat a weaker team of Knights by a score of 9-3 earlier in the TWL season.
Prediction: oR = i9 3-3 and secure the victory by virtue of rounds won.