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Counter-Strike: GameSensed: The Importance of the First Frag

By: Mark Cheben - Published July 04, 2005 at 3:04 AM EDT - Writer Archive
Another important point to test was comparing this data specifically for CTs and Ts. These results were more significant than I expected. If a CT gets the first frag, the CT team has an 80% chance of winning the round, while for Ts, the number clocks in around 70%. Here we see a 5 percent swing from the original 75%. This still shows that striking first is very essential for both offense and defense, but it reveals something else: that it is easier to collapse on defense and win shorthanded than it is to win shorthanded on offense. That may have seemed obvious to some, but now there is a conclusive statistical basis behind it. This would also explain why CTs win an average of 54% of rounds overall compared to the T's winning percentage of 46%.

The fact that the defensive team has an overall edge in competitive CS is the subject of another article, so I will leave those details for another day. In any case, here is a summary of the information just given to you.


By Side, % of Times Winning the Round When Getting the First Frag

Side Round Win %
CT78.9 %
T70.2 %


The final element tested also includes the T and CT side, but is specific to each map. Offense and defense were included here because in general, each map followed the 75% rule, but the CT / T split was not always 80% / 70%. For some maps, getting the first frag is just not as essential. In other cases we see that there are several maps which are very, very difficult to win rounds shorthanded. Below is an ordered chart listing the CT / T ratios. I chose to sort by offensive round winning percentage.


By Map & Side, % of Times Winning the Round When Getting the First Frag


Map CT Win % T Win %
de_aztec76.9 %61.5 %
de_cbble82.6 %63.6 %
de_cpl_fire78.6 %66.9 %
de_inferno81.3 %68.8 %
de_train77.7 %70.0 %
de_cpl_mill76.7 %70.3 %
de_cpl_strike 78.5 %71.7 %
de_dust278.9 %72.8 %
de_nuke76.0 %74.0 %


Here we see that getting the first frag on offense is far less significant for Aztec, Cbble, cpl_fire, and Inferno. The maps Cbble and Inferno also stand out as being extraordinarily difficult to win shorthanded (above 80% round win percentage for CTs getting the first frag). Here, Nuke stands out as the most balanced map which is what most people in the competitive community have believed since the early days of CS. A common theme that probably makes it so difficult to win shorthanded on maps like Aztec, Cbble, and Inferno is the sheer distance between the two bombsites combined with the narrowness of several chokepoints on each map.
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