The preceding situation was only an example, what the Defense did was simply play a mind game. They made the Offense rethink their strategy, thus putting the Defense at an advantage. The round following that caused the Offense to be low on money and the Defense saved some money with the guns already available.

Moving on, we should know how to predict, and which way to predict to bring the best chance of success. A prediction is not a foundationless guess, it is an educated guess based on probability (which will be discussed in detail in the future), as well as mindsets (also to be discussed in detail in the future). By taking probability and your opponent’s mind set as well as yours into consideration, we can make a good prediction of an outcome.

A high probability that your opponents are lacking money for weapons this round, as well as knowing that your opponent has a conservative mind set, we can predict that the opponent will do some sort of eco-save strategy.

Similarly, in a game of chess, if for a fact you have your opponent’s bishop and pawn forked by your knight, meaning that they will have to sacrifice a piece to save another, there is a high probability that your opponent will sacrifice the pawn than the bishop since the bishop is generally a more useful piece. We can therefore predict that your opponent will move the bishop to a safer spot and be of no danger to any of your pieces, giving you a choice to take an open piece or set up an attack. This kind of prediction is easy and not the stuff we should even bother with here.

The question that I’m trying to raise then is this: what if in the chess situation given above, that by forking the bishop-pawn, you leave your opponent the chance to fork your queen-rook in the next three moves?
To predict well is to consider every possible factor and variable, not just the situation at hand. Calling a strategy based on a prediction of the current round can leave an opening for your opponent to attack back. Instead, base predictions on what happened on past rounds as well as probabilities on future rounds. If your chance of success decreases every move after the one to be taken, it is worth considering and rethinking whether you should do this. Success of predictions have a positive correlation with awareness, do not focus entirely on yourself, take some time to record every move your opponent makes based on the variables, calculate your probabilities and your opponent’s probability. With that, predict what your opponent will not do, force them to do it and make them take a step back.

To use the ‘weapon’ well requires an understanding of probability which would be explained in later sections of this series, as well as an understanding of how mind sets work and how we can manipulate them. To use this predictive strategy does not necessarily mean we can win the rounds, what it does however is put you more in control of the game. At times we use this intuitively, we often try to lure enemies to push a certain spot by pretending we were once there but had retreated with our backs facing them. However we do not want to do this intuitively; we want to know how, why and when it is to be used. To use it intuitively and unconsciously makes you far too predictable.

Understand that this is not the key to winning the game, in fact it only constitutes a small proportion. The mind game involved is complex and being in a stalemate is all too often the case. To make it powerful and to fully utilize this requires further knowledge and thinking that will be introduced in the future.

What’s next?

This is only a scratch on the surface, a teaser of what to expect in the future sections. As the series develops, expect to find complex situations involving calculations and psychoanalysis. It is a good time now to digest what this article had to offer and start raising opinions. If you are already thinking of critiques then I can give myself a pat on the back, my audiences are thinking and that’s the goal of this article. Playing a game of counter-strike is like playing a game of chess, you can only win by being a step ahead of your opponent whether it is making them take a step back or by being fully aware of all variables putting yourself a step forward. Being part one of this topic, expect to see part two as well once probability, mindsets and variations are explained.

Excerpt of next installment: Mind Games - Offense is the best Defense

Out of all the chess competitors I’ve played, some defeat me because they simply outsmart me and think far beyond my reach, but even so, I’ve often kept my game and was able to tie a few boards before losing. Other times I lose due to lack of concentration on a bad day where my thoughts are often clouded by a heavy fog from sleep deprivation. Even in those occasions I often win or tie a board or two before losing. But never have I been mocked and embarrassed as badly as one event in hometown Hong Kong. I lost straight rounds and never stood a chance....... In other words, offense was the best defense at that time and at any other time, including in Counter-Strike...