ESWC looms on the horizon, and anyone trying to figure out who will win should first consider who the contenders will have to play. It’s not as easy as the CPL; there are no brackets. It’s all about the top and high seeds.

Anyone who has watched the World Cup for Football (or Soccer for Americans) will realize how important top and high seeds are for group play. Without a top or high seed, you often get stuck in tough groups. Let’s take a look at some quick facts about how teams have done with top or high seeds.

First, high seeds have also been referred to as “Mid-level” seeds (in 2005) due to ESWC’s inclusion of a third group. For this article I’ll just refer to the top group as “top seeds” and the second group as “high seeds.” Top seeds are 68-8-1 in the last two ESWC events - 2004-2005 - during the first group stage. High Seeds are 57-19-1 in their first group stage.

The second group stage saw some interesting results, as top seeds went 15-16-8, while high seeds went 18-16-4. This trend of high seeds doing better carried over to the single elimination playoff stage, too, where top seeds only managed a record of 4-6, with only seven of the 16 teams advancing to the playoffs. Three of the four wins came from 2004 champion The Titans, and of the other six teams that made the quarterfinals, only Lunatic.Hai managed a victory.

The high seeds have had a much better track record in the playoff rounds. Their record is an impressive 10-6, including three teams that made the finals, with Complexity winning in 2005 while SK.dk and spiXel made the championship match the previous year.

Want to bet on a winner? Consider the second level teams.

Beyond top and high seeds, only seven of 61 other teams have made it to the second round of group play. In 2004 that list consisted of Factory, act, IncTa, and Homelan. In 2005 there were only three teams in this category: wNv.gm, Abitstrike, and a-Losers. Of those seven teams, none of the 2004 teams made the playoff stage of competition, while both wNv.gm and a-Losers from ESWC 2005 both lost their first round game in the quarterfinals.

Let’s take a look at the top and high seed positions for ESWC 2006.

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ESWC 2006 Seeds with Analysis

Top-seed Pool:

ALTERNATE aTTaX - This is a well deserved spot, as this team is really under-appreciated right now in the CS scene.

compLexity - Obviously the defending Champion earned a top seed, but they also have backed it up with solid performances.

Lunatic Hai - Their 2nd place finish at CPL, along with a quarterfinals appearance at the last ESWC, gives them this spot.

Ninjas in Pyjamas - While they don’t have the achievements this year, they have the roster at the top qualifier from Sweden, which merits a top seed.

Spirit of Amiga - I think they are a little overrated here, but Denmark has the history with a 1st place and a 2nd place finish at the last two ESWC events.

Team 3D - The top American qualifier probably deserves this spot, but there’s a lot of evidence to suggest their play beyond WCG may not warrant it.

wNv.Gaming - This is a no-brainer as wNv is the top team in the world, following a pair of WEG championships, as well as a quarterfinals appearance in the last ESWC.

Virtus.Pro - I think this might be an over-estimation for this team. They looked great at WEG but didn’t make it out of group play, and they choked last year at ESWC in the second group stage.

High-seed Pool:

Astralis - I’m glad ESWC finally woke up and stopped putting this team as a top seed. At the last two ESWC events, they have been top seeds and have yet to make it to the playoff stage; they need to earn that spot.

Evil Geniuses - While Canadians may feel they deserve a top spot, let’s be honest - they aren’t nearly as good without Shag and have no accomplishments of note this year.

Fnatic - I felt this team had the talent to deserve a top spot and maybe should be where Virtus.Pro is. Also, if you thinking that Sweden shouldn’t get two top seeds, think again as they have had two top seeds before.

Four Kings - This spot is deserved, as this team has way too many question marks to go any higher in the seed pools.

JaS.Webone - I truly saw this one coming; it’s a French event and shouldn’t be a surprise.

Made in Brazil - They have yet to prove they really deserve to be a top seed, so this is a good spot for now.

mTw - This spot makes sense and the German teams are stacked; mTw knocked out a good Mouz team and I expect the Germans to do well in Paris.

x6tence.AMD - I actually expected this as well; Spain should field a top team.